A Fragile Peace Unravels South Sudan’s political architecture—five vice presidents mandated by the 2018 peace deal—was meant to prevent a return to war. That structure is now in tatters.In March 2025, First Vice President Riek Machar, Kiir’s civil war rival, was arrested in a nighttime raid. Charged with treason and murder, he remains under house arrest. His party, the SPLM-IO, declared the peace agreement “effectively dead. ”Elections, originally due in 2024, have been postponed twice—now slated for December 2026. Critics call it a stalling tactic. The government cites unfinished census and constitutional reforms. Citizens see only unpaid salaries and rising hunger.

Violence ReturnsSince January, fighting between Kiir’s forces and splinter armed groups has displaced 370,000 people. Clashes in Greater Pibor, Jonglei, and Equatoria states have destroyed clinics, schools, and farms.The UN warns of a “renewed slide into full-scale conflict.” Over 300,000 have fled across borders since the Machar arrest. Another 2.6 million remain internally displaced—many still scarred from the 2013–2018 civil war that killed nearly 400,000.

What Happens Next?With no clear successor, no functioning peace deal, and no elections in sight, South Sudan teeters on the edge.Kiir, 74, rules by decree. Bol Mel’s fall removes a powerful rival—but also a potential bridge to younger elites. The vacuum risks deeper factionalism within the SPLM and the military.International calls for dialogue grow louder. The African Union and IGAD have urged mediation. The UN Security Council has renewed sanctions threats. But enforcement remains weak.For the people of South Sudan—12 million strong, oil-rich, and war-weary—the question is no longer who will lead, but whether the country can survive another collapse.